Pair #8406

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SJIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1107

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-SIM

The Masters: Will Sungjae Im finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 13332

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:33:10Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at a different major, so no top-5 finish at the Masters is required. Finishing top 5 at the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -5.97% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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