Pair #8405

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SJIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1107

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Sungjae Im wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-SIM

Will Sungjae Im lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 156473

YES ask: 0.0090
NO ask: 0.9920
Last: 0.0090

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:33:10Z

Reasoning: Winning any major does not require leading R1 at the Masters. Leading R1 at the Masters does not imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.17% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9990
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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