Pair #8404

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SJIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1107

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Sungjae Im wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-SIM

The Masters: Will Sungjae Im finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 63457

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:33:10Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at a different major, requiring no particular finish at the Masters. Finishing top 20 at the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -37.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3200
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -42.00% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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