Pair #8403

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SJIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1107

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-SIM

The Masters: Will Sungjae Im finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 35689

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:33:10Z

Reasoning: Sungjae Im could win a different major (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, The Open) without finishing top 10 at the Masters. Finishing top 10 at the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -9.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -13.78% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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