Pair #8402

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SJIM

Will Sungjae Im win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2280125

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-SIM

Will Sungjae Im finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 20222

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:33:10Z

Reasoning: If Sungjae Im wins the Masters outright, he has the lowest total strokes in the entire field, which means he must also have the lowest strokes among Asian/Oceanic golfers — provided he completes all four rounds (which winning requires). The reverse does not hold. Confidence is medium rather than high only because the rules specify 'complete the full tournament,' which winning inherently satisfies, but edge cases like playoff formats could theoretically complicate interpretation.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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