Pair #840

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 780

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Austin Smotherman makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 369

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Austin Smotherman finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:32Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not require finishing top 10 in R1, and finishing top 10 in R1 does not guarantee making the cut (could perform poorly in R2).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.6100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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