Pair #84

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNEXTTEAMNFL-26THILL-DEN

What will be Tyreek Hill's next team?

Series: KXNEXTTEAMNFL
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 5532

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Tyreek Hill's next team is Denver before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship?

Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 273838

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:00:50Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: Whether Tyreek Hill signs with Denver is independent of whether Denver wins the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -18.01% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900 + ~$0.0057 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -22.46% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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