Pair #8396

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HHAL

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Harry Hall
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 319

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Harry Hall wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-HAH

The Masters: Will Harry Hall finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Harry Hall
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 643

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Harry Hall finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:33:10Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at a different major (not the Masters), so no top-5 at Masters is required. Finishing top 5 at the Masters does not require winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -5.97% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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