Pair #8395

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-HHAL

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Harry Hall
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 319

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Harry Hall wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-HHAL

Will Harry Hall lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Harry Hall
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 29009

YES ask: 0.0090
NO ask: 0.9930
Last: 0.0090

View on Kalshi

Rules If Harry Hall is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:33:10Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading R1 at the Masters (could win a different major, or win the Masters without leading R1). Leading R1 at the Masters does not imply winning a major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.52% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0090
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -5.81% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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