Pair #8390

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-ETF

The Masters: Will Ethan Fang finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ethan Fang
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 466

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ethan Fang finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-EFAN

The Masters: Will Ethan Fang make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ethan Fang
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 13608

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ethan Fang has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:32:48Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 requires completing all four rounds, which means making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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