Pair #839

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 780

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Austin Smotherman makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11285

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Austin Smotherman finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:32Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top-10 finish, and finishing top 10 does imply making the cut but that direction (top 10 → make cut) is the actual implication. Top 10 → make cut is high confidence.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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