Pair #8382

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-EFAN

Will Ethan Fang win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ethan Fang
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 99711

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ethan Fang wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26AMAT-EFAN

Will Ethan Fang finish as the top Amateur golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Ethan Fang
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:00Z
Volume: 20787

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ethan Fang records the lowest total strokes among all Amateur golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: need more info
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:32:29Z

Reasoning: If Ethan Fang wins the Masters, he has the lowest score overall, which would mean he has the lowest score among amateurs too — IF he is an amateur. However, it is unclear whether Ethan Fang holds amateur status at the time of the 2026 Masters. If he is not an amateur, the implication would not hold. Additional context on his amateur status is needed.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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