Pair #838

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 369

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-ASMO

Will Austin Smotherman win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 398782

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:32Z

Reasoning: Winning the overall tournament does not require finishing top 10 in R1 (a player can start poorly and recover, though uncommon), and finishing top 10 in R1 does not guarantee winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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