Pair #8376

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-ZAJ

The Masters: Will Zach Johnson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Zach Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 11335

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Zach Johnson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-ZJOH

The Masters: Will Zach Johnson make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Zach Johnson
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 26547

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.4900
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Zach Johnson has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:32:29Z

Reasoning: If Zach Johnson finishes in the top 20, he must have completed the tournament, which requires making the cut. The reverse does not hold: making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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