Pair #8371

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-TMCK

Will Tom McKibbin win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tom McKibbin
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 139084

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom McKibbin wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26LIV-TMCK

Will Tom McKibbin finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Tom McKibbin
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 3882

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom McKibbin records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:32:29Z

Reasoning: If Tom McKibbin wins the Masters outright, he has the lowest score among all golfers, which necessarily means he has the lowest score among LIV golfers (a subset). Therefore winning the Masters implies being the top LIV golfer. The reverse does not hold: he could be the top LIV golfer without winning the overall tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue