Pair #837

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-ASMO

Will Austin Smotherman win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 398782

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Austin Smotherman wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11285

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Austin Smotherman finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:32Z

Reasoning: Winning means finishing 1st, which is necessarily top 10. Finishing top 10 does not require winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue