Pair #8369

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-BRC

The Masters: Will Brian Campbell finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 49545

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brian Campbell finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-BCAM

The Masters: Will Brian Campbell make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Brian Campbell
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 13401

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.7800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brian Campbell has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:32:08Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires completing all four rounds (players who miss the cut cannot finish in the top 20), so making the cut is logically necessary. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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