Pair #8354

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-BUW

The Masters: Will Bubba Watson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Bubba Watson
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 10275

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bubba Watson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-BWAT

The Masters: Will Bubba Watson make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Bubba Watson
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 18085

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.6900
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Bubba Watson has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:31:52Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires completing all rounds after the cut, so making the cut is a logical necessity. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top-20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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