Pair #835

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 369

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7086

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:32Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 overall does not require finishing top 10 in R1, and finishing top 10 in R1 does not guarantee a top-5 finish overall.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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