Pair #834

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7086

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11285

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:32Z

Reasoning: Top 5 is a subset of top 10, so finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 10. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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