Pair #8338

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-ASCO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2024

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If Adam Scott wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-ADS

The Masters: Will Adam Scott finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Adam Scott
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 28423

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Adam Scott finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:31:32Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship — not necessarily the Masters. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.74% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.54% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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