Pair #831

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-ASMO

Will Austin Smotherman lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 93823

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 369

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:32Z

Reasoning: If Smotherman leads after Round 1, he is necessarily in the top 10 (top 1 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — top 10 in R1 does not mean leading.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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