Antecedent (if this happens)
KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27-DEN
Will Denver win the Pro Football AFC Championship?
Series: KXNFLAFCCHAMP
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 222934
YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Denver wins the Pro Football AFC Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXRECORDNFLBEST-27-DEN
Will Denver have the best regular season record in the 2026-27 season?
Series: KXRECORDNFLBEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2027-02-08T15:00:00Z
Volume: 6149
YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Denver has the best regular season record in Pro Football in the 2026-27 Pro Football Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:00:50Z
Reasoning: Winning the AFC Championship does not require having the best regular season record, and having the best record does not guarantee winning the AFC Championship. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
0.00%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0000
Days to maturity:
253
Hurdle yield:
4.28%
Excess yield:
-4.28%
BELOW HURDLE