Pair #8298

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-RGER

Will Ryan Gerard win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1660993

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Gerard wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-RYG

The Masters: Will Ryan Gerard finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 55676

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:30:18Z

Reasoning: If Ryan Gerard wins the Masters, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily within the top 20. The reverse does not hold: he could finish top 20 without winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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