Pair #8291

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-KBRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1022

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-KEB

The Masters: Will Keegan Bradley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 3417

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:30:18Z

Reasoning: Bradley could win a different major without finishing top 5 at the Masters. Finishing top 5 at the Masters does not necessitate winning any major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.74% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.54% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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