Pair #8290

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-KBRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1022

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-KBRA

The Masters: Will Keegan Bradley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 4768

YES ask: 0.9000
NO ask: 0.1500
Last: 0.8200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:30:18Z

Reasoning: Bradley could win a different major (not the Masters) and miss the cut at the Masters. Making the cut at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -65.93% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -70.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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