Pair #829

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 780

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Austin Smotherman makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-ASMO

Will Austin Smotherman lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 93823

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Austin Smotherman is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:32Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (could collapse in R2), and making the cut does not require leading R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.3700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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