Pair #8289

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-KBRA

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1022

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-KBRA

Will Keegan Bradley lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Keegan Bradley
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 23540

YES ask: 0.0090
NO ask: 0.9930
Last: 0.0090

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keegan Bradley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:30:18Z

Reasoning: Bradley could win a different major without leading Round 1 at the Masters. And leading Round 1 at the Masters does not necessitate winning any major. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 1.90% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9890
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -2.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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