Pair #828

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-ASMO

Will Austin Smotherman lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 93823

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-ASMO

Will Austin Smotherman win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 398782

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:13Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee winning the tournament, and winning the tournament does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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