Pair #8274

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-CAS

The Masters: Will Cameron Smith finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7619

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-CSMI

The Masters: Will Cameron Smith make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 10300

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:29:39Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 requires completing all four rounds, which means making the cut. However, making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish. So top 5 implies made cut, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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