Pair #8267

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-CAS

The Masters: Will Cameron Smith finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 7619

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-CAS

The Masters: Will Cameron Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 45384

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:29:39Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 5 is a subset of top 20). However, finishing top 20 does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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