Pair #8266

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-CAS

The Masters: Will Cameron Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 45384

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-CSMI

The Masters: Will Cameron Smith make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 10300

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:29:39Z

Reasoning: If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 20, he must have completed all four rounds, which requires making the cut. However, making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish. So top 20 implies made cut, but not vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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