Pair #8261

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-CAS

The Masters: Will Cameron Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 22812

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-CSMI

The Masters: Will Cameron Smith make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 10300

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:29:19Z

Reasoning: If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 10, he must have completed the full tournament, which means he necessarily made the cut. The reverse does not hold — he could make the cut but finish outside the top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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