Pair #826

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 369

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 24170

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:13Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 20 overall finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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