Pair #8259

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-CAS

The Masters: Will Cameron Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 22812

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-CAS

The Masters: Will Cameron Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 45384

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:29:19Z

Reasoning: If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 10, he necessarily also finishes in the top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — he could finish, say, 15th (top 20 but not top 10).

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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