Pair #8257

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10169

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26LIV-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 32563

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:29:19Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require winning The Masters specifically (could win another major), and being the top LIV golfer at The Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -18.82% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -23.10% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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