Pair #8255

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10169

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-MAST26-CSMI

The Masters: Will Cameron Smith make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-11T10:00:00Z
Volume: 10300

YES ask: 0.6800
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith has made the cut at the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:29:19Z

Reasoning: Smith could win a different major (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, The Open) without making the cut at The Masters. Making the cut at The Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -58.89% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6800
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -63.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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