Pair #8254

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10169

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 117703

YES ask: 0.0090
NO ask: 0.9920
Last: 0.0090

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:29:19Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not require leading after Round 1 of The Masters, and leading after Round 1 of The Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -1.52% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0090
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -5.81% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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