Pair #8253

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10169

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

Rules

If Cameron Smith wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-CAS

The Masters: Will Cameron Smith finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 45384

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.2300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:29:19Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require winning or finishing top 20 at The Masters specifically — Smith could win a different major. And finishing top 20 at The Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -28.76% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -33.05% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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