Pair #8252

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CSMI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 10169

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-CAS

The Masters: Will Cameron Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 22812

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:29:19Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require winning The Masters specifically — Smith could win the PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open Championship. And finishing top 10 at The Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -13.67% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -17.95% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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