Pair #8251

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2391248

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0020

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Rules

If Cameron Smith wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 5921

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Cameron Smith records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:29:19Z

Reasoning: If Cameron Smith wins the Masters outright, he has the lowest score among all golfers in the field, which necessarily means he has the lowest score among the subset of Asian/Oceanic golfers. Winning the tournament logically necessitates being the top Asian/Oceanic finisher. The reverse does not hold — he could be the top Asian/Oceanic golfer without winning the tournament overall.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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