Pair #8250

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2391248

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0020

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26LIV-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith finish as the top LIV golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 32563

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith records the lowest total strokes among all LIV golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:28:58Z

Reasoning: If Cameron Smith wins the Masters overall, he necessarily has the lowest total strokes among all golfers, including all LIV golfers, making him the top LIV finisher. The reverse does not hold — he could be the best LIV golfer without winning overall.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue