Pair #825

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11285

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 24170

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:13Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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