Pair #8245

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-CSMI

Will Cameron Smith win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2391248

YES ask: 0.0020
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0020

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Rules

If Cameron Smith wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-CAS

The Masters: Will Cameron Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Cameron Smith
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 22812

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Cameron Smith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:28:58Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — a top 10 finish doesn't mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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