Pair #824

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 24170

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ASMO

Valspar Championship: Will Austin Smotherman make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Austin Smotherman
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 780

YES ask: 0.7600
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.7000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Austin Smotherman makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:10:13Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in the overall tournament requires making the cut (players who miss the cut cannot finish in the top 20). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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