Pair #8238

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-VSIN

Will Vijay Singh win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Vijay Singh
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 109595

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Vijay Singh wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-MAST26APAC-VSIN

Will Vijay Singh finish as the top Asian/Oceanic golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Vijay Singh
Expiration: 2026-04-13T00:00:25.427Z
Volume: 11520

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Vijay Singh records the lowest total strokes among all Asian/Oceanic golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:28:39Z

Reasoning: If Vijay Singh wins The Masters (lowest total strokes overall), he necessarily has the lowest total strokes among any subset of players including Asian/Oceanic golfers, so he would be the top Asian/Oceanic finisher — assuming he qualifies as Asian/Oceanic (he is Fijian, which is Oceanic) and completes the full tournament. The reverse does not hold. Confidence is medium rather than high because it depends on Singh's regional classification being confirmed as Asian/Oceanic.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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