Pair #8230

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-MAP

The Masters: Will Marco Penge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 15663

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MAP

The Masters: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 37197

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:28:39Z

Reasoning: If Marco Penge finishes in the top 10, he necessarily also finishes in the top 20. The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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