Pair #8228

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-MAST26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Masters?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-26T23:00:00Z
Volume: 44574

YES ask: 0.0120
NO ask: 0.9890
Last: 0.0120

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:28:39Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not require leading after Round 1 at The Masters (could win a different major, or win The Masters without leading R1). Leading after R1 at The Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -2.01% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0120
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -6.30% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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