Pair #8227

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MAP

The Masters: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 37197

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:28:39Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at any of the four majors, not necessarily The Masters. And winning The Masters would imply a top 20 finish there, but winning a major doesn't necessitate winning The Masters specifically. Conversely, finishing top 20 at The Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -16.31% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -20.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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