Pair #8226

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-MAP

The Masters: Will Marco Penge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 15663

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Masters, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-07T08:28:16Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 could be at any of the four majors, not necessarily the Masters. If Penge wins a different major, the Masters top 10 market is independent. And finishing top 10 at the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -3.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -7.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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